Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 22.276882 26.242858 31.129243 37.744684 46.723648 58.907860 77.528200
2024-12-22 17.137798 21.435690 27.276102 36.201386 50.365706 73.907360 121.767195
2024-12-29 14.711286 19.117475 25.503633 36.128902 55.127004 92.674392 194.745158
2025-01-05 12.684429 16.875570 23.200841 34.328253 55.948107 104.714778 276.979236
2025-01-12 11.017616 14.877503 20.855836 31.766732 54.212046 110.010833 356.344374
2025-01-19 9.805453 13.402846 19.095346 29.812089 52.983154 115.981656 467.966124
2025-01-26 9.968804 14.062505 20.916171 34.957775 70.005473 197.148325 2365.500640
2025-02-02 9.651777 13.895011 21.267475 37.275636 81.708580 288.698988 51068.015090
2025-02-09 8.850459 12.828183 19.826324 35.329707 80.040598 310.240557 NaN
2025-02-16 8.554910 12.591710 19.899472 36.863356 90.535259 452.485926 NaN
2025-02-23 8.137538 12.099727 19.410612 36.933455 96.184020 596.161166 NaN
2025-03-02 7.730924 11.590147 18.822808 36.625009 100.367873 770.762709 NaN
2025-03-09 7.405969 11.229234 18.550688 37.260305 110.143354 1238.793180 NaN
2025-03-16 6.927437 10.551432 17.551997 35.719160 109.071755 1490.095642 NaN
2025-03-23 6.617782 10.160502 17.110205 35.649340 115.620659 2432.943189 NaN
2025-03-30 6.209273 9.555528 16.149515 33.884000 111.937832 2754.158740 NaN
2025-04-06 5.777697 8.883359 14.992555 31.371215 102.895650 2378.105757 NaN
2025-04-13 5.421809 8.336866 14.072047 29.452476 96.666143 2246.834508 NaN
2025-04-20 5.588168 8.787605 15.364834 34.501263 138.078495 325632.865458 NaN
2025-04-27 5.538395 8.816431 15.720889 36.773037 167.383045 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.251900 8.360172 14.906754 34.865899 158.660581 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.172972 8.312136 15.049380 36.369062 185.001683 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.023141 8.112011 14.808867 36.437751 197.787380 NaN NaN